UKC

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/8607324.stm

I was wondering if anyone who knows about the history and politics of Kyrgyzstan feels able to offer advice here. How long might this go on for? How long is a piece of string? Myself and a friend have an expedition to Kyrgyzstan planned for late July and early August. We may or may not be able to get refunds for the money we've spent so far. We need to decide whether to cancel it now and cut our losses or to hope that the unrest sorts itself out by the time we travel.

In the light of the unrest, the Foreign Office have advised people not to travel there unless it is essential. This means that the only affordable insurance we could find (the BMC) wouldn't cover us. So not only would the unrest have to stop for us to travel, but the foreign office would have to reflect this in their travel advice. Does anyone know how quickly travel advice tends to reflect an improving situation? (it obvously reflects a deteriorating situation very quickly...)

In reply to monkey kong:

I'm in a similar situation and I'm monitoring this very closely. I'm keeping my fingers crossed. I fly into Bishkek in late July and then cross into China. Good luck.

In reply to monkey kong:

There are now unconfirmed reports that the President has buggered off in a light aircraft... As far as stability this summer is concerned, it seems this is the best possible outcome, so let's hope it's true!

In reply to monkey kong: Early reports coming in are that the government has now resigned though it's possibly too early to make a definitive call on.

In reply to monkey kong:

its not unusual for bishkek to have these eruptions, but theyre usually not this far reaching.
the place rarely gets any reporting (how many people can pronounce it or find bishkek on the map) so the history of unrest goes unnoticed until its really strikes a chord.
bishkek never has been a particularly safe place (ive had a policeman pull a gun on me downtown near the entrance to the university in broad daylight), tho it is quite spread out so, as in the past, riots and demonstrations can affect one part of town and not another.

id be concerned about borders being closed, tho manas is very safe and in the past has been the haven when things have gotten ugly (US airbase that also houses a special operations unit is next door).

for thoe with expeditions there: it could all settle down very rapidly and be back to its normal dodgy self soon. there is huge interest in the place from big players (cant believe the article doesnt mention the chinese presence).
see where your exped is based out of too. bishkek is a long way from most jump off points to the mountains (if your headed to the tienshan or pamir) BUT if trouble spreads to osh be prepared to rethink a visit.
osh is even more unstable and has a tendency to dissolve its civil issues into ethnic ones that genuinely do erupt into gun fights. plus its not easy to get out of.
that said, its also a world away from bishkek so may not be affected.

if youre really worried think about getting a contingency visa in case you need to leave fast. most surrounding countries are not that visa friendly, tho uzbekistan allows transit visa free (tashkents an hour away from bishkek).

also, dont go by govt travel advice - anywhere with a stan it they will have been telling you not to visit for years now any way.
i have decent UN contacts there so will post anything useful as i hear about it.

In reply to monkey kong:

just got word direct that UN and ADB personel have been put on hold from entering kyrgyzstan for the moment.
they havent actually evacuated staff that are there tho.

concerns that it will spread to osh are not too much at the moment, but some westerners there (as has long been the concern) are worried for being mistaken for russians. theres a mild leftover disgruntlement towards russians sometimes blaming them for the high unemployment.
being taken for american is not a problem in kyrgyzstan (the famous kidnapping was by uzbek sepratists in an uzbek enclave the other end of the country).

In reply to ice.solo:

Thanks for this, very informative.

Looks like a new government is in place and there are calm scenes on the streets. Maybe this will provide a bit of stability in the immediate future.

In reply to ice.solo:

Thanks for that insightful info. as well, please do keep us posted.

In reply to monkey kong:

oddly, its only the foreigners there that are reporting unrest.
the kyrgyz locals (not all ethnic kyrgyz tho) arent really mentioning it.

for what its worth, the australian govt (fairly paranoid and similar line to the US and UK) hasnt upgraded its travel warning beyond the usual 'maintain high levels of security' that its been for years. next level is something like 'reconsider travel plans', so its not even that.

what im thinking is its been knee-jerk reported in the international press (not unusual) when the situation on the ground has been localized and fairly contained - all within a society used to upheavel.

if it were me, id still go. so long as it doesnt void any insurance you may have and you have a contingency plan (i think crossing to kazakhstan would be easiest and safest).
remember things were similar in nepal for a few years and it didnt really stop climbers.

In reply to monkey kong: Is that J.P by any chance?

I was wondering about that myself.

In reply to davidbeynon:

Yes, it is me...

In reply to monkey kong:

There are sighificany oil and gas reserves in the region and both russia and USA have military bases to protect their interests, it is unlikely to be resolved soon.

In reply to monkey kong:

the latest im hearing:

many govts are upgrading their warnings. not a good sign.
president has been held in osh - a really not good sign as its threatening to start a north/south conflict - something long been possible (south is largely uzbek and more islamic minded, also the ferghana region houses some militant groups that flee across the borders).
UN is making a decision early next week to relocate non-essential personel and to post-phone those going in.
apparently theres looting so probably curfews coming if not in place already.

as the travel warning has now escalated, folks heading that way may be voiding travel insurance.