UKC

This has been chased about on the Écrins snow post but feel it maybe needs its own thread to raise awareness.

The Écrins had a lot of snow up high late in the season, this has lead to very high water levels this spring seeing a few deaths 2 uk boaters, 1 Irish and 2 rafters (group of friends not commercial) in the last few weeks. 

There has been 24 hours of hard rain in the last 24h which added to the snow melt has sent the rivers in to floods. 

The co du lautaret road was shut this morning due to a rock slide, should be cleared by the end of the day, they have also closed the main bridge in to Vallouise is shut and the main car park has been washed away taking a car with it (video in link below). they had to evacuate 150 people from campsites and homes

Access to Pré de Mme carle and the access to le Bans valley is also closed. with the camp site in ailefroide being evacuated as well. 

In the Queyras a walk died in a rock fall. 

If you are in the area, they are asking people to respect the closures and stay out of the mountains and a safe distance from the rivers. If traveling around or heading over be aware that there will be issues on the road and access to area maybe closed. 

its is a dry weekend coming but more rain next week, not as much but there is still a lot of snow to melt so the rivers will still be high. 

photos and videos on my Facebook group for the Écrins

https://www.facebook.com/groups/146634635971764

or my page https://www.facebook.com/rob.benton.39982

In reply to ecrinscollective:

Here in the south of the Ecrins we are currently having one of the heaviest hail storms I can remember with thunder & lightning somewhere in the background. Earlier today the River Drac at Pont du Fossé was close to bursting its banks & part of the weekly market had been moved just in case. The river itself was huge, and a thick deep brown colour - not dissimilar to those in Rob's videos.

Had planned to go out cycling this afternoon but suspect I'll be staying indoors.

In reply to Doug:

From the national park authority -

https://www.ecrins-parcnational.fr/actualite/inondations-cours-massif

In reply to ecrinscollective:

Thank you. Good advice.

There has been severe erosion after the exceptional weather. The high ground at the Ailfroide campsite is OK (unlike a lot of other locations). The rivers are very high and quite a few of the paths have been severely eroded and even lower walks may be problematic and access limited. The unstable weather will continue.

In reply to ecrinscollective:

I suspect it's not just the Ecrins suffering at present - I took the train through the Brenner pass from Italy to Munich a couple of weeks ago and the rivers were chocka - brown, fast, high and full of trees & flotsam. One bridge had no daylight under it, the water was right up to the bottom of the deck.  When we got to Germany on the Friday it was raining and continued to rain solidly until the middle of sunday. There was huge disruption in Bavaria, with rivers bursting their banks, evacuations and a dam bursting.

In reply to ecrinscollective:

Aosta Valley has the same, the Dora Baltea has flood watches down the whole valley. 

Also Zermatt is cut off!! No I couldn't believe it either. 

https://snowbrains.com/landslide-and-flooding-cuts-off-zermatt-switzerland-...

The forecast is more rain over the weekend and continuing rapid melt from high seasonal snowfall.

In reply to ecrinscollective:

Anyone heading to Ailefroide, there is an advisory against drinking the water. Might be worth bringing bottled water before coming up. Not sure how long this will last.

In reply to ecrinscollective:

Thanks for sharing the info. Currently on our way to Ailefroide to climb - would you say we would be better off waiting until the weather clears up a bit? Not been to the area before.

In reply to rowanbrandreth:

Isn't it crystal clear that that's what they're saying?

In reply to ecrinscollective:

La Bérarde:

https://www.ledauphine.com/environnement/2024/06/22/un-torrent-qui-emporte-...

https://www.ledauphine.com/environnement/2024/06/21/isere-la-haute-vallee-d...

In reply to ecrinscollective:

Thanks very much for posting. We are currently on a campsite near Troyes on our way down to Ailefroide and are rapidly reassessing our plans. Trying to work out where better to go but the weather is looking bad over most of France for the week ahead.

Any ideas? 

In reply to El Greyo:

The AC Summer Meet is at Ailefroide....some of our folk are heading to 'Marseille'. The forecasts are quite unstable...today's outlook is rather better.

A post from Pelvoux yesterday... https://www.facebook.com/share/p/exGNNZQDTBghF8cP/

(This morning is lovely on the campsite)!

In reply to HardenClimber:

Forecasts more than 2 days ahead are a waste of time, even those 2 days ahead can be a work of fiction, particularly in the mountains.

In reply to rowanbrandreth:

We're going to climb round Dijon for a few days and see how the weather evolves. 

Weather in the Lake District is looking good all week...

In reply to ecrinscollective:

Hi All, 

Just to come back to some of the questions about coming to the area. (Sorry long post)

I think it's important to note that the amount of rain we had was a lot, but it was the fact that it was mixed with the snow melt that made it so damaging. It was the stolen rivers that have caused issues. Had that rain fallen in August it wouldn't have been that bad.

All the local communes such as Vallouise/Pelvoux (which cover Ailefroide,) l'argenteiere and Briancion etc. Stopped their emergency protocols yesterday afternoon around 16:00 as the rivers start to drop. The Gyrionde (behind my house) is now back to just above pre rain levels.

Now comes the clear up, that for most things it wont take long. For the road sections that need repairing like the section going into Vallouise, they will put up diversions so should be ok. There may be a little bit more faff getting around.

It's warm and sunny here today and the same tomorrow so the crag will dry quickly apart from the odd route. I know people that are back climbing today. 

The weather forecast, as someone has already said isn't that reliable. Even the next few days only say it's a 2 out 5 for reliability, and past that it gets worse. I am going to go out on a limb here and state that the weather is normally better than forecast (don't shoot me if I am wrong). It's currently showing dry days and a few mm of rain in the evening last afternoon.

I know I said in the OP that the rivers are full and it wont take much to keep them that way, I was more aiming that at kayakers to know what to expect. a few mm each day wont start floods again.

In terms of coming, I would check with you accommodation to see it they have been effected. mainly the campsites I would guess. There are lots like the one in Puy st Vincent and the higher one in les Vigneaux that were unaffected. If you're planning to go high up maybe contact the refuge they will have the latest information. There may be issues with footpaths need repair and there for issues with access, I haven't heard anything yet but I guess it will take a few days to find out all the details. 

If it was me, I would more just plan on the weather forecast for the coming week, if you would have come on that forecast then come. its looking the kind of weather you can always get something done, a climb, via ferrata or walk? 

Best places to get info is the facebook's of the refuge Pelvoux is quite good at updates. Also you can get an app called illiwap in it you can sign up to the vallouise/pelvoux its what the local authorities use to keep locals uptodate on what's happening.

if you have any questions feel free to drop me a line of [email protected] or through Facebook, links in OP. I don't have all the answers but will try and help where I can.

In reply to ecrinscollective:

Hi Rob - that is really helpful! A quick question - what would you consider the most reliable weather forecast? We get conflicting views depending on meteo, accuweather etc…!

nick

In reply to ecrinscollective:

Thank you for your detailed reply - it's really appreciated. 

In reply to pancakeandchips:

This comment aged well 😂 

In reply to nickg_oxford:

So I use a mix of meteoblue and meteociel, they both have the smallest grid size for the forecast so should be the most accurate. On metroblue you can even go to summit peaks.
That said they are often very different. we tent to think of meteoblue as optimistic and meteociel as pessimistic. 

It does seam to be a bad area for weather forecasting, I am not sure if it's hard to read or they are that used to it being sunny they don't try that hard? 

Hope that helps 

In reply to ecrinscollective:

La Berarde has been devastated by flooding, the village evacuated by helicopter and the road closed from Venosc.

In reply to:

Habitation in some alpine areas seems to be getting more and more tenuous. We were in St Martin Vesubie a few years ago and it was absolutely devastated by floods.

In reply to DaveHK:

There have always been floods and avalanches, it's not getting any worse

In reply to Casper768:

 > There have always been floods and avalanches, it's not getting any worse

The IPCC think otherwise.

In reply to DaveHK:

There have always been bad floods in this area but they do seem to be more frequent than in the past

In reply to Doug:

The thawing permafrost issue is pretty well known but I've also read a few things about changes in rainfall patterns to shorter bursts of heavier rain.

In reply to ecrinscollective:

Thanks Mr Ecrin, very helpful and informative.

In reply to Mattress:

Apparently this is due to a glacial lake emptying on the Bonne Pierre glacier above the village - 200,000m3 of water in just 12 hours!

In reply to Alta Via:

Any source on that? Because Copernicus sat photos just a week ago don't show any large glacial lake on Bonne Pierre.

Were it a true Glacial Lake Outburst Flood, there would be simply no survivors that close. A GLOF is totally catastrophic and sudden.

All the news and pictures so far show a torrential flash flood and associated mudslides, certainly compatible with an extreme rainfall and a rainfall‑induced snowmelt event – flash floods and their mudslides are quite damaging enough, no need for a GLOF.

Still and whatever the cause, my heart goes to the inhabitants – most of the village is lost

In reply to pancakeandchips:

Camping Ailefroide today.

In reply to DaveHK:

Not true, there is no IPPC info re the Ecrins, and as Doug says there have always been bad floods in this area. It's good to be able to think for yourself.

In reply to Casper768:

Good luck to you, doing all that thinking yourself must be hard work. I'd be worried I'd get it wrong so I tend to farm some of the difficult stuff out.

In reply to Casper768:

Is this area somehow magically protected from the planet, about which the IPCC happen to have a lot of info on?

In reply to El Greyo:

We’re in Ariege having binned plans to go to the Vercors, looks like we made the right choice.

Last few days in the Cevennes/Gorge du Tarn were cold and occasionally rainy but nothing like further east. Aude/Ariege has the best forecast for the coming week though even that’s not that great. Couldn’t believe we were sat outside the tent in Florac on midsummer’s day wearing duvet jackets and beanies.

If you can reschedule your trip I’d do that. 

In reply to Casper768:

Please just kindly bugger off with any of your climate denialist shit. A whole beautiful village was almost totally lost to an extreme weather event that's clearly tied to the climate change causing more extreme weather events on both scales of dry and wet. It's only a total serendipity and professionalism of the French emergency services that there wasn't a 100% loss of life there.

You sound just like a typical climate denialist ghoul – dancing on the graves of a village deluded by a flash flood while shouting "all is fine!!!".

"Think for yourself", my arse...

In reply to Frank R.:

The Sentinel 2 satellite image from 17 June clearly shows the lake.

In reply to Casper768:

I also said that floods appear to be happening more frequently - as predicted by the IPPC & others.

And the National Park & other French authorities do have data which is shared

In reply to Frank R.:I think everybody is entitled to an opinion, but I think I have heard your type of rhetoric before...if logic or reason fails just resort to personal insult.

In reply to Alta Via:

Yes, but not a large lake. I wouldn't exactly count that as a typical GLOF event – as in the main cause of all the insane destruction (my apologies for being pedantic during such a catastrophe, but I think it's important to identify the causes of such for the future).

The whole small watershed above the village had in just a couple of hours received several orders of magnitude more volume of water from the extreme rainfall than the volume of that lake – the lake bursting certainly wouldn't have helped, but there was likely already a much bigger flash flood from just the rain and snow.

Or maybe not. Hence me asking for a source that the lake burst was the main cause, as that's how I interpreted your post. My apologies if you meant it otherwise.

Enough of the pedantry. I still feel deeply sorry for the people there, having seen enough aftermaths of floods in person myself. The pictures of houses ruined – or even entirely buried in mudslides – are always heartbreaking.

Source for the poche glaciaire will likely have come from the CNRS. I have found nothing definitive that states this is the case. But they will be leading the interpretative aspect of the work.

https://www.ledauphine.com/environnement/2024/06/23/isere-la-berarde-enquet...

I am currently trying to get through to the various organisations/ communes involved to offer help as an Engineering Geologist and AMM as I live near Grenoble.

Last photos available that I have seen show the church partially destroyed. Rumours that even the village is done for:although just that: rumours.

In reply to 65:

Re-reading my post, moaning about my holiday weather conditions seems insensitive and ill-placed when people’s homes are being wiped out.

In reply to Casper768:

The first and last resort of a charlatan. You are indeed entitled to an opinion, which is meaningless.

The standard defence of those without a shred of an argument.

Climate denying troll, devoid of human decency.

In reply to 65:

Hmmm, lots of angry keyboard people on here...weird site. 

In reply to 65:

Hmmm, lots of angry keyboard Corbynistas  on here...weird site. 

In reply to Urban Warrior:

It was from the RTM 38. A team flew up the Bonne Pierre glacier in a helicopter on Saturday morning to examine the area. Their initial assessment was that the emptying of the lake likely played a critical role in putting all that rock debris into motion.

But obviously the lake bursting was just one part of a multi-factorial situation. Other factors include the high levels of precipitation over the previous 48 hours, the exceptional snow cover for the time of year, and the rapid melting of this snow pack due to both the rain and the southerly air-stream. In addition glacial moraines downstream from the lake have been destabilised by glacial retreat over the past 30+ years. It was - as the expression goes - the perfect storm!

In reply to Casper768:

OK Casper, you're right! Goodbye then, and wishing you all the best in your future typing and endeavours! Au revoir! Have fun! Happy landings! It's been real!

Etc.

In reply to Alta Via:

Thanks. I'll wait for the final technical report with interest* – if even the quite small (supposedly, at least from the sat images) periglacial lake (I guessed it at around 100‑250,000 m3 from the sat photos, at least on the surface) outburst actually contributed significantly to the kinetic damage downstream, that should definitely be counted for in future local models to prevent and model such tragedies.

I am still assuming that most of it came from just the extreme rainfall, as looking at the ECMWF prediction data of the extreme rainfall over over the several hours of it (I don't have the API access to other data right now) and the rough size of the watershed, even 250,000 m3 seems really small compared to roughly the 1,000x volume of water that simply rained down in the few valleys inside the whole watershed, finally converging on the village down below.

Yet there might be a certain possibility the initial flash flood damage had been exacerbated by the distinct topography and a small periglacial lake outburst, which is indeed worthy of investigation – even if the main cause is still likely the extreme weather event. 

*: with an interest in understanding & preventing any further similar tragedies, as any sane citizen should, as extreme rainfall events are likely only going to increase in frequency in the future due to global warming, at least in such places like this one (unless they get a period of extreme droughts from global warming as well instead – both are quite possible). And lots of people live in mountain valleys prone to flash floods, so we need every bit of data to asses their vulnerability.

In reply to Casper768:

You are indeed totally entitled to your opinion that "the day is the night", of course.

That doesn't thankfully stop us from laughing at your idiocy for having such an arsed "opinion", one so easily debunked by just looking up at the sky.

It could have been even fun "interacting" with you (in other words – making fun of you) in the Pub sub‑forum, if you haven't been trolling a sincere thread about a very real human tragedy exacerbated by the global warming, you utter midge...

In reply to Frank R.:

Ooh ! Are you really calling that nice new poster Casper768 a blood sucking insect with no redeeming features whatsoever, that all climbers and walkers would rather see exterminated ?

(Got it right then)

In reply to Casper768:

"It's good to be able to think for yourself."

You are right, give it a go. 

In reply to Alta Via:

RTM? As in the ONF? Are you local?

In reply to ecrinscollective:

Hello, is there any update for how things are locally?  Was intending to head to this area next week but trying to weigh up whether that is still a sensible choice 

Cheers 🙂.

In reply to Andrew23:

Hi Andrew. 

Things are getting back to normal, most of the roads are open or have good diversions. All the refuges are back open and I think most of the footpaths to them are good to go. 

The weather is getting more like normal for this time of year. There is still a lot of snow up high and the melt is keeping the rivers and bank heigh.

Out climbing today and it's busy with people from all over. 

In reply to ecrinscollective:

Thanks that's really helpful